J.P. Morgan has revised its price target for Apple’s stock, now pegging it at $230, down from $240. This decision stems from indications that iPhone demand may be diminishing after a surge of early purchases and a lack of enthusiasm for upcoming models.
According to a note to investors, the firm has lowered its outlook for Apple’s revenues and earnings over the next 18 months, highlighting softer demand projections for the iPhone 17 lineup and broader economic pressures that could impact consumer spending. The investment bank anticipates a slowdown in iPhone sales, particularly following demand spikes where customers purchased new devices earlier to avoid expected price increases due to tariffs.
With limited changes in the iPhone 17 hardware, J.P. Morgan predicts that adoption of the new models will be slower than usual. Production forecasts for the iPhone 17 are expected to be around 9% lower than those for the iPhone 16, and Apple is likely to ship a similar number of iPhones in 2025 as in 2024, despite anticipated challenges.
Furthermore, J.P. Morgan’s updated forecast indicates reduced growth in Apple’s Services segment, which has contributed significantly to margin expansion in previous years. Although Apple is shifting its supply chain from China to India to mitigate exposure to U.S. tariffs, this transition may not fully counterbalance the forecasted decline in volume resulting from rising prices.
Looking ahead, J.P. Morgan anticipates renewed momentum with the launch of the iPhone 18, which is expected to feature a foldable model and advanced AI capabilities. These innovations could rekindle consumer interest, supporting revenue growth in fiscal 2027.
In the interim, the firm’s earnings forecast for 2025 remains stable, though it does reflect a cautious outlook regarding unit growth, price elasticity, and cost pressures from tariffs. Investors are particularly monitoring AI innovations, with Apple being more judicious in its AI feature rollouts compared to competitors.
The company’s long-term strategy focuses on 2026 as a pivotal year for innovation, including a significant Siri overhaul and potential launches of new products like a foldable iPhone. Until these advancements occur, Apple will depend on its services revenue and margin control to sustain investor confidence.
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