Recent estimates from supply chain analysts indicate that Apple may have gained market share in the computing sector during the first quarter of 2025. However, it’s important to note that shipment figures do not equate to actual sales.
Apple has been pushing hardware into channels in anticipation of potential tariff impacts, which skews the true picture of consumer demand. According to Canalys data released on July 1, Apple experienced significant shipment growth of 28.7% in the Mac category at the beginning of 2025.
In comparison, competitors such as HP, Dell, and Lenovo only achieved single-digit growth. Apple shipped approximately 2.7 million desktops and laptops, raising its share of the U.S. PC shipment market to around 16%, up from just over 14% the previous year.
However, these statistics reflect products sent to retail, not necessarily those purchased by consumers. In total, PC shipments reached 16.9 million units, showing a year-over-year increase of nearly 15%.
This surge indicates that vendors rushed to fill U.S. channels with inventory before tariffs on Chinese-made devices took effect. While this strategy enabled them to secure lower import costs, it also raised the risk of excess unsold stock.
The introduction of new M4 chip MacBook Air models in March significantly boosted Apple’s shipment figures, making the devices more attractive to students and professionals due to their improved design and performance. Alongside the Mac Studio refresh, which drew creative professionals, Apple effectively pushed hardware into the market before the anticipated tariff increases.
However, this front-loading of shipments has inflated short-term numbers without guaranteeing sales to end users. Analysts predict that, while retail inventories will be full, clearing existing stock could inhibit future shipments as consumers hold off on purchases.
Canalys forecasts only 2% growth in total U.S. PC shipments for 2025, signaling a decline after the initial quarter. Commercial demand appears to provide some stability, with an expected 8% rise in business PC shipments, yet it may not be sufficient to offset a predicted drop of over 4% in consumer demand.
High prices and the complexity of specifications may discourage upgrades, especially as retailers work through surplus inventory. Apple’s ability to navigate this landscape lies in its loyal customer base and strong ecosystem integration.
Its new Macs have attracted significant interest, yet the company must continue converting inventory into actual sales to sustain its gains.
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