One in Four iPhone Users Approve Payments Outside the App Store

Big developers are optimistic that U.S. users might consider purchasing subscriptions outside of the App Store. However, a recent survey indicates that significant discounts will be necessary to entice most users to make the switch. The ongoing legal battle between Epic Games and Apple has led to Apple being required to allow developers to link to external stores after not complying with a 2021 court injunction.

As a result, this may lead to notable revenue declines for Apple in the future. According to a May survey conducted by AlphaWise and discussed in a Morgan Stanley analyst note, many consumers are interested in making purchases without using Apple’s payment systems. The survey posed a question to U.S. iPhone owners regarding their willingness to buy an app directly from a developer’s website at the same price as offered on the App Store.

The results showed that approximately 28% of respondents expressed they were “Extremely Likely” to do so, a slight increase from prior years, while 20% said “Somewhat Likely,” which is a drop from previous surveys. On the other hand, a combined 26% of respondents found the prospect “Somewhat Unlikely” or “Extremely Unlikely,” indicating a growing resistance. To further analyze potential user behavior, the survey inquired about the discounts needed to make non-App Store purchases appealing.

In 2025, respondents indicated they would require a discount of around 29%, which is lower than the 35% reported in a 2022 survey. Nevertheless, this discount closely mirrors Apple’s existing 30% cut from App Store transactions, meaning developers could potentially earn similar profits from direct sales after accounting for any processing fees. Despite this, if the survey results hold, the implications for Apple are significant.

Morgan Stanley estimates a potential revenue risk of about $3.7 billion, which could affect Apple’s quarterly earnings. Following a court ruling mandating changes to Apple’s anti-steering policy, the company introduced a complex alternative but faced renewed legal challenges to its practices. Apple has since appealed the decision and sought to delay enforcement, though this request was denied in June.